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Primary aluminous market is faced with major variable
From;    Author:Stand originally

Aluminous price of 3 quarters whole world drops the risk still exists
  
At the beginning of this year Feburary since nonferrous metal spread out one round to go up on average of a more than 25 % seasonal rise, but former aluminium of inside and outside is behaved however go up for exceeding sluggish posture. Because North America consumes data not to back the spread on aluminous price,this is on one hand, anticipate China is produced on the other hand can considerably dilate also is main factor. Produce in view of Chinese enlarge, human relations aluminium " force storehouse " uncertainty, and what consume a circumstance domestic and internationally is fluctuant, the variable that domestic and international aluminous price faces 2 quarters this year is quite big, be in whole the 3rd quarter, the risk that global aluminous price drops still exists.

   "Crowded storehouse " still do not decide

As a result of the financial property that the current great place that maintain a warehouse has, market of human relations aluminium is initial already had " crowded storehouse " premise condition. As a result of this year after the 2nd quarter, china electroanalysises in great quantities aluminium is produced can release concentration, between 6-9 month consequently market pressure will increase apparently, figure from this, although the market if really happen " crowded storehouse " , meantime machine appears unlikelily also after June.

If be in in June the middle ten days of a month " crowded storehouse " still fail to appear, do not eliminate bull to abandon dish possibility. At the appointed time, of market of human relations aluminium considerably fall after a rise drives domestic aluminous price inevitably to draw close to aluminous factory cost price, do not eliminate to drop even the case that wears cost appears. But, if at the appointed time human relations aluminium if really appear " force storehouse " prices, answer the exit that whether advertent domestic and international rate of exchange is helpful for Chinese former aluminium. The foundation is current inside and outside dish moving circumstance is conjectural, outside strong inside weak structure will continue to deduce, and human relations aluminium " crowded storehouse " will make rate of exchange to 6.7 around draw close, at the appointed time China will have a large number of aluminous ingot export, and LME market is in face huge amount fact dish below the pressure of complete a business transaction, "Force storehouse " whether the success is still suspectable.

   Beautiful economy growth still puts doubt

Of epicycle nonferrous metal rise result from the influence of American economy get warm again after a cold spell. But from current economy consumptive data looks, what still cannot judge economy of current United States to grow is durative. OECD banner index, purchase handler index to explain current economy is not be in a durative ascendant cycle.
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